Odds calculator
The anvil's five numbers for any grade, relic shelf and sword state, worked out the way the game works them out.
Break tickets are then scaled by how dangerous the grade is (at +10 the base break chance is 46.7%), sword-state tickets are added, and the whole deck is rounded to 1,000.
| Grade | BREAK | DAMAGE | HOLD | SUCCESS | GREAT | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0 | 0.0% | 9.5% | 23.8% | 57.2% | 9.5% | 320 G |
| +2 | 5.9% | 9.0% | 22.4% | 53.8% | 8.9% | 720 G |
| +4 | 24.8% | 7.2% | 17.9% | 43.0% | 7.1% | 1,620 G |
| +6 | 34.7% | 6.2% | 15.6% | 37.3% | 6.2% | 3,645 G |
| +8 | 41.8% | 5.5% | 13.9% | 33.3% | 5.5% | 8,201 G |
| +10 | 46.7% | 5.1% | 12.7% | 30.4% | 5.1% | 18,453 G |
| +12 | 50.5% | 4.7% | 11.8% | 28.3% | 4.7% | 41,519 G |
| +14 | 53.2% | 4.5% | 11.1% | 26.7% | 4.5% | 93,417 G |
| +16 | 55.8% | 4.2% | 10.5% | 25.3% | 4.2% | 210,189 G |
| +18 | 59.4% | 3.9% | 9.7% | 23.2% | 3.8% | 472,925 G |
| +20 | 63.0% | 3.5% | 8.8% | 21.2% | 3.5% | 1,064,082 G |
| +25 | 67.5% | 3.1% | 7.7% | 18.6% | 3.1% | 8,080,374 G |
| +30 | 72.0% | 2.7% | 6.7% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 61,360,339 G |
What moves the odds
Every strike draws one ticket from a deck of five piles. With no relics the deck holds 9 Break, 2 Damage, 5 Hold, 12 Success and 2 Great tickets. Relics add tickets to piles or move them between piles, and some sword states add tickets for a single strike, like Closed Third Eye after a Hold.
The Break pile is then weighted by the grade: the higher the blade, the heavier it gets, until Break reaches 72% at +30 on an empty shelf. Break-reducing relics multiply that share afterwards, and during Frenzy it is removed entirely. The game rounds the result to whole tickets out of 1,000, which is why every percentage here ends in a single decimal. The full walkthrough is in the forging odds guide.