Every strike draws one ticket out of 1,000. On a fresh +0 blade with no relics, 572 of them say Success, 95 Great, 238 Hold, 95 Damage and none say Break. By +5 Break holds 297 tickets, by +10 467, by +20 630, and from +30 on it stays at 720.
The game's code builds those numbers in three steps: a deck of tickets, a weight on the Break pile that grows with the grade, and whatever your relics do to either.
The five outcomes
- Success
- Adds a level.
- Great
- Adds two levels and sets the sword's value to 2.5 times what it was, a little more than the 2.25 two levels would give.
- Hold
- Changes nothing, but several relics fire on it.
- Damage
- Takes a level away, never below +0. The sword keeps its look.
- Break
- Destroys the sword. Unless a relic catches it, it's gone and worth nothing.
The deck and the break curve
Before any relic, the deck holds 9 Break, 2 Damage, 5 Hold, 12 Success and 2 Great tickets. The Break pile is then weighted by the sword's grade using a break curve stored in the game's economy table. The weight is chosen so that, on this exact deck, Break comes out at the curve's value: 1.8% at +1, 24.8% at +4, 46.7% at +10 and 72% from +30 up. The other four piles share what's left in their fixed 2 : 5 : 12 : 2 ratio.
| Grade | BREAK | DAMAGE | HOLD | SUCCESS | GREAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0 | 0.0% | 9.5% | 23.8% | 57.2% | 9.5% |
| +1 | 1.8% | 9.4% | 23.4% | 56.1% | 9.3% |
| +2 | 5.9% | 9.0% | 22.4% | 53.8% | 8.9% |
| +3 | 12.9% | 8.3% | 20.7% | 49.8% | 8.3% |
| +4 | 24.8% | 7.2% | 17.9% | 43.0% | 7.1% |
| +5 | 29.7% | 6.7% | 16.7% | 40.2% | 6.7% |
| +6 | 34.7% | 6.2% | 15.6% | 37.3% | 6.2% |
| +7 | 38.3% | 5.9% | 14.7% | 35.2% | 5.9% |
| +8 | 41.8% | 5.5% | 13.9% | 33.3% | 5.5% |
| +9 | 44.3% | 5.3% | 13.3% | 31.8% | 5.3% |
| +10 | 46.7% | 5.1% | 12.7% | 30.4% | 5.1% |
| +11 | 49.1% | 4.9% | 12.1% | 29.1% | 4.8% |
| +12 | 50.5% | 4.7% | 11.8% | 28.3% | 4.7% |
| +13 | 51.9% | 4.6% | 11.4% | 27.5% | 4.6% |
| +14 | 53.2% | 4.5% | 11.1% | 26.7% | 4.5% |
| +15 | 54.5% | 4.4% | 10.8% | 26.0% | 4.3% |
| +16 | 55.8% | 4.2% | 10.5% | 25.3% | 4.2% |
| +17 | 57.6% | 4.1% | 10.1% | 24.2% | 4.0% |
| +18 | 59.4% | 3.9% | 9.7% | 23.2% | 3.8% |
| +19 | 61.2% | 3.7% | 9.2% | 22.2% | 3.7% |
| +20 | 63.0% | 3.5% | 8.8% | 21.2% | 3.5% |
| +21 | 63.9% | 3.5% | 8.6% | 20.6% | 3.4% |
| +22 | 64.8% | 3.4% | 8.4% | 20.1% | 3.3% |
| +23 | 65.7% | 3.3% | 8.2% | 19.6% | 3.2% |
| +24 | 66.6% | 3.2% | 7.9% | 19.1% | 3.2% |
| +25 | 67.5% | 3.1% | 7.7% | 18.6% | 3.1% |
| +26 | 68.4% | 3.0% | 7.5% | 18.1% | 3.0% |
| +27 | 69.3% | 2.9% | 7.3% | 17.6% | 2.9% |
| +28 | 70.2% | 2.9% | 7.1% | 17.0% | 2.8% |
| +29 | 71.1% | 2.8% | 6.9% | 16.5% | 2.7% |
| +30 and up | 72.0% | 2.7% | 6.7% | 16.0% | 2.6% |
Relics that add tickets also cut Break
The Break pile's weight comes from the grade, not from the size of the deck. So when a relic adds tickets to another pile, Break's share shrinks. Bent Nail only says "+4 Success tickets", but at +10 it also takes Break from 46.7% to 42.4%. Iron Hoop works from the other side and removes 2 Break tickets, which at +10 gives 40.5%.
The same goes the other way. Butterfingers adds Break tickets on purpose and pays for it with five extra Great tickets, and Thorn Weight moves Hold tickets into Damage. Sickle and Hammer replaces the whole deck with 5 tickets in every pile, which at +10 reads 33.8%, 16.6%, 16.6%, 16.5%, 16.5% across the five outcomes.
Relics that multiply the break chance
A second group works on Break's share after the deck is weighed: Black Knot (x0.9), Dragonscale Tongs from +6 (x0.75), Scorched Charm stacks, Cracked Splice scars, and the one-strike cuts from Lightning Mark (x0.6) and Red Thread (x0.8). Whatever they take from Break goes to the other four piles in proportion. At +10, Black Knot alone gives 42.1%, the Tongs 35.0%, and both together 31.5%, because the multipliers stack.
Frenzy, chalk and powder
During Frenzy the Break pile is emptied, so nothing can break and the other four outcomes share all 1,000 tickets. The anvil already shows those odds when a sword sits at a full charge, because the next strike starts the Frenzy. Red Chalk doubles the Great pile for one strike, and Powder Pouch folds the deck into two results: Success and Great become Great, everything else becomes Break.
Rounding
The final deck is scaled to 1,000 whole tickets. Each pile is rounded down and the leftover tickets go to the piles with the largest remainders, so the five percentages always add up to exactly 100.0%.
To try any of this with your own shelf, use the odds calculator, or strike a sword in the forge simulator.